Why Ukraine must win.
Is freedom more important than peace? At the end of 2024, this question is on my mind.
Dear Readers,
Every now and then, it is good to assess your own convictions in order to determine whether they are still adequate and up to date.
I carried out this personal review on the subject of Ukraine and came to the conclusion: I am still convinced that Ukraine must win the war against Russia or should at least be put in a position to negotiate a possible ceasefire with Russia on an equal footing.
I was aided by an intelligent article in the U.S. foreign policy magazine Foreign Affairs, which goes into why an appeasement towards the Russian president Vladimir Putin would be a huge mistake.
The author, Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow between 2012 and 2014, explains why the argument, that the war could be ended momentarily if only the aid to Ukraine were cut off, is misleading. “To abruptly cut funding for Ukraine now would not bring about peace; it would only spur further Russian aggression”, McFaul argues.
In order to work towards a peace agreement, Trump should therefore accelerate the military aid already approved for Ukraine. This could lead to a kind of stalemate on the battlefield. The author writes: “Putin will only negotiate seriously when Russian armed forces no longer have the capacity to seize more Ukrainian territory (…). For serious negotiations to begin, Putin must first believe that the United States will not abandon Ukraine.”
Interested in this topic? Have a look at one of my other recent articles:
“They were here for a moment”
A second anecdote on the subject of Ukraine comes from my mother Elisabeth Sandmann, who celebrated the 20th anniversary of her publishing house, Elisabeth Sandmann Verlag, a few days ago.
A year ago, the Elisabeth Sandmann Verlag published the book “Letters from Women in Ukraine to the Free World.” As part of the book launch, a concert was organized in Berlin in December 2023. 80 musicians from Ukraine came to Germany to play in the capital city for one evening only.
“She too, this great violinist, stood and waited with the others to board the bus that would take them all through the night back to the horror. But they were here for a moment.”
After the concert, there was a moment that still touches my heart, especially before Christmas. My mother captured it:
“I would like to share an image with you that I can’t get out of my head. That evening after the concert, on my way to the subway with a friend, I passed the artists’ entrance where the musicians were coming out. They had taken off their concert clothes and put on their everyday clothes. They had all looked so radiant and proud on stage, but now they looked tired, exhausted and tense, at least to me. Some of them were carrying small bags, probably Christmas shopping. Shopping that had to be done in a hurry, because there wasn't much free time. In the trunk of the bus was a bright red tin car for a child. Someone had managed to buy it and I’ve been thinking ever since, who will give it to whom and how long will the happiness last?
I was also able to say goodbye to Bogdana Pivnenko once again and realized how inappropriate it was to wish her a peaceful Christmas. She too, this great violinist, stood and waited with the others to board the bus that would take them all through the night back to the horror. But they were here for a moment.”
One year later, the reality for Ukrainians remains dramatic. The people in eastern Ukraine have to endure a regime of terror as a result of the Russian occupation. The electricity and energy supply in the country will be at stake again this winter. And starting January 20, 2025, when Donald Trump officially takes office as U.S. President, a different era will begin.
“Lukashenko is a lot more vulnerable than Putin”
That is why we should also look to other countries that can make a difference in the region. Belarus is a neighboring country of Ukraine and is often forgotten these days. Yet, the work carried out by Belarusian resistance fighters such as the exiled politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is enormously important. Also for Europe. If the Belarusian President (and Putin-controlled puppet) Lukashenko is weakened, that could have serious consequences for Russia.
A few days ago, I was able to talk to Tsikhanouskaya’s diplomatic advisor. I asked Dzianis Kuchynski whether a free Belarus can only exist without Putin. His answer was surprising and somewhat encouraging:
“Many people think that changes in the region – including Ukraine, including Belarus, including Georgia – are possible only when there is no Putin, or when the Russian regime has collapsed, or there is a democratization in Russia.
Of course, if there were to be a democracy in Russia, this could open up many opportunities in the whole region and in Europe. But on the other hand, changes in Russia can (and most likely would) start from a change in Belarus. We see how a potential change of the regime in Belarus and a democratization of Belarus could have a domino effect.
We saw that in a way in 2020 when we had an uprising with hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, which immediately led to uprisings and protests in Russia. People do watch closely and they do observe what’s going on in the neighboring countries. I think we should start with the things that are realistic. Lukashenko is a lot more vulnerable than Putin. In Belarusian society, he has no popular support. Our society is fully pro democratic, pro-western and antiwar.”
Peace or Freedom?
Just before Christmas, I’m thinking about a quote from Willy Brandt. It is printed on a large board at Berlin Airport and you see it every time you stand on the escalator:
“If I had to say what is more important to me besides peace,
my answer would be without any doubt: Freedom.”
I would add a question to the quote: If you had to decide what is more important - peace or freedom - which of the two would you choose? Is freedom more important than peace?
I wish you a Merry Christmas and a good, peaceful and healthy start to the new year. Thank you for your support, which means so much to me. 2025 will be a challenge on many levels. I look forward to discussing these topics with you!
Philipp Sandmann