This is the "Zeitenwende" Germany feared
The Munich Security Conference showed that these are not the best times to be an ally of the US. Germany is experiencing a major turning point, however, we should also not put up with everything.
Dear Readers,
The rift between Washington D.C. and Berlin is likely to have widened and deepened considerably in recent days.
U.S. President Donald Trump kicked things off on February 12th when he first spoke to Vladimir Putin on the phone about Russia’s war against Ukraine and only afterwards to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The order of priority was therefore clear: Ukraine and the European Union had been sidelined.
Afterwards, Trump said that he had spoken with Putin about many topics and also about the “greatness” of both nations. In a press conference, the U.S. President then said (video) that Russia had fought “hard” for the land gains in Ukraine and had also lost “many soldiers” in the process.
Trump, it seems, is talking to the enemies of the free world as if they were old friends. In turn, he is barking at the allies of the U.S. (punitive tariffs, making Canada the 51st state of the USA) as if they were enemies. That was always the fear, now it has become reality. No one should be surprised.
“Threat from within”
U.S. Vice President JD Vance then held a speech at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. His remarks were a scolding for Germany and the European Union for allegedly suppressing freedom of speech and being afraid of their own voters.
Perhaps the decisive sentence from Vance: “What I worry most about vis-a-vis Europe: it’s not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within.” In other words: European (democratic) governments, such as the one in Germany, are more dangerous than the threat posed by authoritarian states such as China or Russia.
Perhaps as a reminder: These words come from a man who is still unwilling to recognize the democratic result of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, in which Joe Biden had defeated Donald Trump.
But of course, that is only half of the story. Germany and the European Union are only so upset, because they have neglected to prepare for this day. The U.S. Vice President’s speech comes at a time when Germany’s economic and foreign policy standing is weaker than it has been for a long time. And to bei fair: these problems are homemade.
Hadley Gamble, the Chief International Anchor for Al-Arabiya English, listened to Vance’s speech in Munich. She also saw and heard the reactions at the conference afterwards. She sent me this message:
“Europeans were apoplectic. They were hearing hard truths untouched in the language of diplomatic niceties.”
I think, there is some truth to that - especially when it comes to our own defense spending and military capabilities.
A year ago - on the second anniversary of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine - I wrote an op-ed for the German news outlet “n-tv”. I’ll include the article in full in this newsletter. Not because I thought it was so great, but because I have nothing to add to it. My basic argument has become a sad reality. I really hoped that I’d be wrong.
The op-ed from February 25th, 2024:
Germany must fear the real “Zeitenwende”
Germany hopes and hopes and hopes. For U.S. presidents that are willing to protect Europe. So far, this strategy has worked. But two years after the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, we must finally understand: this is no longer enough.
The shockwaves following Donald Trump’s remarks about NATO reached Berlin faster than Washington. A former - and possibly future - U.S. president openly bashing American allies and “encouraging” Russia to take action against NATO countries that do not pay enough for their own defense was a new level.
But this Trump madness is nothing new either. The truth is that Russia had to attack Ukraine for Germany to wake up from its deep sleep and finally break with its ignorant attitude towards its own armed forces. As finance minister in the last “grand” Angela Merkel coalition, the “Zeitenwende”* Chancellor Olaf Scholz was one of the biggest opponents of the NATO two percent target. Back in 2019, Scholz even pushed to remove a wording (which was actually very cautious by today’s standards) from the coalition’s mid-term review, which was supposed to state that Germany was committed to increasing defense spending to two percent of GDP.
*[The term “Zeitenwende” (watershed era, turning point) was initially coined by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz three years ago, when he spoke to the public after Russia had launched its attack on Ukraine.]
A few weeks ago, this former finance minister and now Chancellor was sitting in the White House in Washington D.C. and had to admit: “Without the support of the USA, it will be impossible for Ukraine to defend its country.”
German wishful thinking
The mistakes of the past are a key to understanding the current situation. The Social Democrats, but also many politicians from other parties, completely misjudged the situation for years. Former German President Joachim Gauck said a year ago with regard to the relationship with Russia:
“There is a wishful thinking in Germany that goes far beyond the Social Democrats: If we only look at the foe in a friendly enough manner, then he will react correspondingly. The ‘otherness’ of the opponent was not recognized. Nor did they [Germans] want to perceive hostility where hostility already existed.”
And German federal governments ignored the obvious warning signals: be it Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 or Trump’s election victory in 2016 and the temporary end of harmonious transatlantic relations at the time. It was clear since 2017 that Donald Trump considers NATO to be “obsolete”. But what was done to prepare for the future? Germany hoped for Joe Biden. For four years.
Now, Germany is hoping again... for Joe Biden. But this time the world is a different place and the Republican Party in the U.S. is increasingly becoming a soulless group of Trump supporters.
Europe’s security is no longer guaranteed
Germany is now fulfilling the NATO two percent target, although with a few tricks. However, Social Democrat politician Michael Roth, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag, said to me:
“A second term for Donald Trump would mean another ‘Zeitenwende’, because Europe’s security would no longer be guaranteed from day one of his presidency. Putin will see this as an invitation to test the limits of our partners on NATO’s eastern flank.”
Europe’s security would no longer be guaranteed if the Americans voted for a different U.S. president? It would, indeed, be a turning point that Germany would have to fear. Roth’s assessment is correct, but it is also incredibly depressing.
The problem is that Germany is still only jumping as high as it has to. We should finally dare to rethink our defense and the defense of Europe. But this would also mean that the Social Democrats - as an entire political party - would have to make a clear commitment to this defense.
In any case, we should not continue to only hope for Biden. We must finally jump higher. We owe it to Ukraine, but above all, we owe it to ourselves. And ultimately we also owe it to the Americans, who have spent decades protecting the Federal Republic of Germany.
Former US Secretary of State Dean Acheson wrote in an essay for “Foreign Affairs” in 1963 that NATO had no real plan for the defense of Europe. 60 years later, one wonders: do we actually have this plan today?
(End of op-ed)
One final point: Anyone who has not yet understood that a successful path for Germany can only work in harmony with a strong European Union, I wish you all the best on your secluded path into the future.
The last few days have made it crystal clear: In some points, our path will and must continue to be fought together with the United States. But in certain other points, we also need to develop our own self-confidence. And after this memorable weekend, we may have also reached the point where we need to think about a European army.
Last week heralded both the end and the beginning of a real turning point for Germany. Above all, a new era is dawning and the old times are over. This is the “Zeitenwende” Germany feared. But it is also the chance for a new beginning.
That’s why I say: Let’s go Europe!
Philipp Sandmann